S+B: Overall, you are cautious about the economy in general.
ELLIS: Yes, but I must acknowledge that my lead/lag indicators have been pessimistic for two years now, and the degree of slowdown in the economy has been far more modest than historical relationships would have suggested.
An important comfort in watching cycles in these charts is that, whether from the peaks or from the troughs, the U.S. economy almost always returns to its mean growth rate of 2 to 3 percent. We’ve had other times when pundits felt there were crises nearing, but you learn after a while that the economy — in the U.S., and perhaps in the rest of the world as well — has a way of correcting itself.
Reprint No. 07109
Art Kleiner (firstname.lastname@example.org) is editor-in-chief of strategy+business and author of Who Really Matters: The Core Group Theory of Power, Privilege, and Success (Doubleday, 2003).
Melissa Master (email@example.com) is a senior editor of strategy+business.