So while the transitions we face in the early twenty-first century certainly involve constant, rapid change, they are not unique in terms of pace, scale, or reach, and there is nothing to suggest change is faster and more pervasive than before, or that it is speeding up. It is possible — probable even — that in new areas such as biotechnology or nanotechnology, change will be exponential for a while as discoveries are made and myriad product opportunities found, just as previous technologies also had their exponential period. But this will soon pass. As a systems view suggests, the “exponential change” view of the future is invalid, and forecasts based on this view will overestimate change. Understanding the balancing forces at work in all the systems around us helps us reign in and reality-test forecasts that are premised on this fallacy.
— Adam Gordon