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Published: October 7, 2008

 
 

The Coming Boom in Hybrid Cars

It is not difficult to imagine a similar interaction between the hybrid and the plug-in hybrid. With all the positive attributes of the conventional hybrid, as well as significantly better fuel economy, the plug-in could very well be the midsized SUV of the next decade. If that happens, the plug-in will certainly need a new S-curve of its own, and both auto manufacturers and dealers should be prepared for a faster-than-expected increase in demand. In the meantime, however, we can place confidence in the S-curve’s prediction that the conventional hybrid, regardless of the future path of gas prices, is here to stay.

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Christopher Giliberti is an undergraduate at Tufts University. He is the editor-in-chief of Hemispheres, Tufts’s undergraduate journal of international affairs, and a business associate at the graduate-school publication the Fletcher Forum of World Affairs. He completed this study with guidance and support from his father, Louis Giliberti, a former Booz Allen Hamilton vice president.
 
 
 
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Resources

  1. Managing Creativity and Innovation, Harvard Business Essentials Series (Harvard Business School Press, 2003): Chapter two of this book, “The S-Curve: A Concept and Its Lessons,” provides a compact account of the concept’s history and implications. 
  2. Theodore Modis, Predictions: Society’s Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future (Simon & Schuster, 1992): A physicist’s in-depth examination of how the S-curve can be used to predict social phenomena such as the life cycles of products.
 
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